2025 - The Year of Inflection

2025 has been a pivotal year in geopolitics.

Arguably the most intense of this century so far.

Here’s why

1. Trump-era trade shock finally hollowed out the global system

World Trade Organization has effectively been rendered toothless.
Unilateral tariffs, selective enforcement, and power-based bargaining forced countries to urgently redesign supply chains - not just for trade, but for critical minerals, energy, and semiconductors.

Result: De-globalisation accelerated, regional blocs strengthened, and “trusted supply chains” became state policy.

2. Ukraine war reached strategic normalisation

Russia’s territorial gains in Ukraine became grudgingly accepted across parts of the Western strategic establishment.
At the same time, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization security guarantee visibly weakened as the United States pulled back from being the default guarantor.

Result:
A massive surge in defence spending across Europe, Japan, and other US allies - rearmament is no longer taboo.

3. China cemented its G-2 leverage

China successfully weaponised its dominance in rare earths and critical minerals, forcing tacit acceptance by Washington of a G-2 style power equilibrium.

Result:
Greater Chinese assertiveness in its near abroad - heightened tensions around Taiwan and Japan, with fewer diplomatic restraints than before.

4. The Middle East entered a new fracture phase

Iran was severely weakened through sustained Israeli and US actions while much of the Arab world stayed passive.
Simultaneously, regional rivalries surfaced openly:
UAE and Saudi Arabia backing competing forces in Yemen and Sudan through proxies and mercenary networks.

Result:
The Arab–Muslim world is increasingly fragmented, uncertain, and strategically unaligned.

5. India declared strategic independence -- openly

India openly defied pressure from the US and refused alignment with either Washington or Beijing, projecting itself as an independent pole.

Result:
• Respect and credibility across the Global South and parts of Europe
• But also a reality check - India lacks China’s mineral leverage and America’s economic & tech dominance

2025 made one truth unavoidable:
In the new world order, independence is respected - but leverage is decisive.

India earned credibility by standing alone.

Now comes the harder task: converting autonomy into influence. This decade won’t reward intent - it will reward execution.
The foundations for that shift were laid in 2025.

What comes next will decide the 2030s.

More on India’s positives in the next post.